The euro zone’s trade surplus fell sharply to € 4.8 billion in August, from € 20.7 billion the previous month. According to Eurostat data, this is mainly due to a 26.6% increase in imports due to rising energy prices.

In particular, imports of fuels and lubricants soared 84.4% year-on-year. Imports of raw materials also increased significantly in August, increasing at an annual rate of 65.4 percent.

In addition, imports from Russia and the United States increased significantly, with annual rates of 107.1% and 18.4% respectively.

Global inflationary risks

After the restrictions related to the pandemic were removed, growing global demand was met by supply shortages around the world. The Wall Street Journal reported that soaring energy and commodity costs are the result of this clash.

While more than a dozen central banks have raised interest rates, two of the most influential, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, have yet to raise rates.

This probably means that different central banks have different views on current inflation fears. Some predict that it will be temporary and gradually subside; others expect it to fuel even more inflationary pressures and therefore act accordingly with tight monetary policy.

Italy’s growth forecasts

The Italian business lobby, Confindustria, has positively revised its growth outlook for the country. The lobby’s research unit now forecasts economic growth of 6.1% this year and 4.1% in 2022.

In April, the forecast for 2021 was 4.1% lower.

This means that the GDP will be above pre-pandemic levels in the first half of 2022. The limited impact of the Delta variant and robust economic indicators were cited as the reasons for this revision.

European inflation

Official data showed that France’s consumer price inflation rate registered its highest rate since October 2018, reaching 2.2% year-on-year in September, higher than 1.9% last month. Energy costs jumped the most, increasing 14.9%.

In addition, according to the Italian National Institute of Statistics, the country’s annual inflation rate rose to 2.5% in September 2021, from 2% in August. Rising energy costs led to this increase, as they increased by 20.2 percent. This is the highest inflation rate since November 2012.

However, Italian consumer prices fell 0.2% month-on-month against an increase of 0.4% in August.

Indonesian trade balance

In 17th consecutive month of continuous trade surplus, Indonesia’s surplus grew from $ 2.4 billion in September 2020 to $ 4.4 billion in September this year, according to data from Statistics Indonesia .

This was mainly due to significantly high growth in exports, which grew at an annual rate of 47.6 percent due to increased exports of petroleum and non-petroleum products. Imports also surged, albeit at a slightly slower pace, growing 40.3 percent. Imports of oil and gas climbed 59.2% while purchases of non-oil and gas products increased 38.2%.

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