The report released today highlights that global trade will support strong global economic growth in 2021 and beyond, with the US and Chinese economies leading the way. This growth defied expectations of double-digit annual declines, which had been estimated between 13 and 32% by the World Trade Organization. For example, Dubai, a major trade hub, saw the growth of its foreign trade rebound significantly in 2020, despite the economic challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the second half of 2020 having seen a particularly significant jump in trade volumes, by 6% year-on-year. year. that of Dubai the overall value of exports jumped 8% in 2020, on an annual basis.
Ahmed Ben Sulayem, Executive Chairman and CEO, DMCC, said: “In 2020, the outlook for world trade was bleak as the world sought to combat the impact of the pandemic. Today the picture is much more positive, as evidenced by the findings of our last edition. special The future of commerce – Report 2021. But if world trade has shown its resilience, it is at the same time undergoing major changes. Technology, changing consumer behavior, the fight against climate change and geopolitics will all be key contributors to its overhaul in the years to come. Against this background, our research offers a number of tangible recommendations for governments and businesses looking to navigate this new landscape and accelerate recovery from the pandemic. “
According to research, the most transformative element in the outlook for world trade is technology. Blockchain, decentralized finance (DeFi) and other new and disruptive technologies will further accelerate the growth of commerce. For example, DeFi protocols have seen a considerable amount of funds invested. Since the start of 2021 alone, the total value locked in DeFi has tripled by around $ 20 billion at 60 billion dollars. As digital infrastructures develop, they will continue to accelerate a revolutionary change in commerce from national to global.
On the geopolitical front, fears of protectionist policies persist and are fueled by lingering trade tensions between the United States and China, rising economic nationalism, and widening economic disparities between low- and middle-income economies. At the same time, in a development meaningful for sustainability and global trade, the EU’s willingness to exploit a practice of carbon pricing, as part of the Carbon Frontier Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), or ” carbon pricing, “has been criticized as a form of protectionism, and as such has the potential to further exacerbate existing geopolitical tensions. The results suggest that while a “new era of protectionism” is a key risk in the wake of the pandemic and the growing discussions of US-Chinese decoupling, outright protectionism will be kept at bay because it is costly, unpredictable, and hassle-free. an impact on jobs. Instead, economic nationalism is more likely to occur.
While there were concerns that the pandemic could see sustainability fall onto the political and business agenda, this has not been the case. Rather, China, Japan, United States, South Korea and Canada are among the countries to have announced more aggressive net zero targets. In addition, companies and investors have stepped up their sustainability efforts and they are expected to experience exponential growth in the years to come. For its part, CBAM has the potential to significantly disrupt international trade and raises questions about how to accurately measure emissions from complex supply chains. Again, technology and artificial intelligence can provide at least part of the answer for companies and governments looking to make accurate assessments of sustainability into their business agendas.
At the launch event, global trade experts participated in a panel discussion to share their views on the report. Panelists included Khatija Haque, Research Officer and Chief Economist, Emirates NBD; Roberta Piermartini, Head of Trade Cost Analysis, World Trade Organization; Yanislav Malahov, crypto and blockchain technology expert and founder of Aeternity; and Marcus traitor, Chairman and CEO of CB Investment Growth Holdings and Member of the Board of Directors of Clear Bank and RTGS Global.
To read the full DMCC report, please visit: www.futureoftrade.com.
Based at Dubai, DMCC is the most interconnected free zone in the world and the main trade and business hub for commodities. Whether it’s developing vibrant neighborhoods with world-class properties like Jumeirah Lakes Towers and the highly anticipated Uptown Dubai, or providing high-performance commercial services, DMCC provides everything its vibrant community needs to make a living. , work and prosper. Designed for commerce, DMCC is proud to support and grow that of Dubai benchmark position for world trade today and in the future. www.dmcc.ae